Ladies and gentlemen, the team for which I have the absolute least idea of what to expect in 2019. The computers seem confused too: Chip Kelly's Bruins are projected 20th in the FPI and 61st in S&P+, an immense difference for two systems that agree on a majority of teams.
I'd say splitting the difference and assuming a top-40ish level makes sense, but Kelly appears to be going about his business in such a unique way from a recruiting and development standpoint that either top-20 or bottom-70 seems more likely than something in between. It's easy to view this as a situation in which it either totally clicks or totally does not.
If solid second-year improvement occurs, it will likely be driven by offense. (Considering we're talking about a Chip Kelly team, that probably shouldn't be surprising.) Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is no longer an overwhelmed true freshman, running back Joshua Kelley is a nice security blanket and the receiving corps is deep and experienced.
A true leap, however, also will require defense. UCLA was just 97th in defensive S&P+ a year ago and was dreadfully inefficient, especially against the pass. Youth was an issue, especially in the secondary; we'll soon find out just how much of an issue it was.
A three-point jump in S&P+ would place the Bruins 62nd, while a 10-point leap would make them 31st and an 18-point surge would place them 17th.
College football in Los Angeles is going to be fascinating this fall. Up at the Rose Bowl, you've got the Bruins serving as the most enigmatic team among those with a second-year coach. Down at the Coliseum, you've got Clay Helton turning to the air raid to save his job. I have no idea how either experiment will go.
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Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:27 pm
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